Interactive exploration of adverse events and multimorbidity in CKD.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of adverse events, early mortality, and multimorbidity. A detailed overview of adverse event types and rates from a large CKD cohort under regular nephrological care is missing. We generated an interactive tool to enable exploration of adverse events and their combinations in the prospective, observational German CKD (GCKD) study. METHODS: The GCKD study enrolled 5217 participants under regular nephrological care with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 or >60 mL/min/1.73m2 and an overt proteinuria. Cardio-, cerebro- and peripheral vascular, kidney, infection, and cancer events, as well as deaths were adjudicated following a standard operation procedure. We summarized these time-to-event data points for exploration in interactive graphs within an R shiny app. Multivariable adjusted Cox models for time to first event were fitted. Cumulative incidence functions, Kaplan-Meier curves and intersection plots were used to display main adverse events and their combinations by sex and CKD etiology. RESULTS: Over a median of 6.5 years, 10 271 events occurred in total and 680 participants (13.0%) died while 2947 participants (56.5%) experienced any event. The new publicly available interactive platform enables readers to scrutinize adverse events and their combinations as well as mortality trends as a gateway to better understand multimorbidity in CKD: incident rates per 1000 patient-years varied by event type, CKD etiology, and baseline characteristics. Incidence rates for the most frequent events and their recurrence were 113.6 (cardiovascular), 75.0 (kidney), and 66.0 (infection). Participants with diabetic kidney disease and men were more prone to experiencing events. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive explorative tool to visualize adverse events (https://gckd.diz.uk-erlangen.de/), their combination, mortality, and multimorbidity among persons with CKD may manifest as a valuable resource for patient care, identification of high-risk groups, health services, and public health policy planning.

Cardiovascular risk due to diabetes mellitus in patients with chronic kidney disease-prospective data from the German Chronic Kidney Disease cohort.

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are well-known cardiovascular and mortality risk factors. To what extent they act in an additive manner and whether the etiology of CKD modifies the risk is uncertain. Methods: The multicenter, prospective, observational German Chronic Kidney Disease study comprises 5217 participants (1868 with DM) with a baseline mean estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or proteinuria >0.5 g/day. We categorized patients whose CKD was caused by cardiovascular or metabolic diseases (CKDcvm) with and without DM, as opposed to genuine CKD (CKDgen) with and without DM. Recorded outcomes were first events of non-cardiovascular and cardiovascular death, 4-point major adverse cardiovascular events (4-point MACE) and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Results: During the 6.5-year follow-up 603 (12%) non-cardiovascular and 209 (4%) cardiovascular deaths, 645 (12%) 4-point MACE, and 398 (8%) HHF were observed, most frequently in patients with DM having CKDcvm. DM increased the risk of non-cardiovascular [hazard ratio (HR) 1.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.32] and cardiovascular (HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.62-3.12) deaths, 4-point MACE (HR 1.93; 95% CI 1.62-2.31) and HHF (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.48-2.36). Mortality risks were elevated by DM to a similar extent in CKDcvm and CKDgen, but for HHF in CKDcvm only (HR 2.07; 95% CI 1.55-2.77). In patients with DM, CKDcvm (versus CKDgen) only increased the risk for HHF (HR 1.93; 95% CI 1.15-3.22). Conclusions: DM contributes to cardiovascular and mortality excess risk in patients with moderate to severe CKD in both, CKDcvm and CKDgen. Patients with DM and CKDcvm are particularly susceptible to HHF.

Copeptin, Natriuretic Peptides, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With CKD: The German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) Study.

Rationale & Objective: Copeptin and Midrange pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-pro-ANP) are associated with outcomes independently of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) in patients with heart failure (HF). The value of these markers in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been studied. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting & Participants: A total of 4,417 patients enrolled in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 mL/min/1.73m2 or overt proteinuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio >300mg/g or equivalent). Exposures: Copeptin, MR-pro-ANP, and NT-pro-BNP levels were measured in baseline samples. Outcomes: Noncardiovascular death, cardiovascular (CV) death, major adverse CV event (MACE), and hospitalization for HF. Analytical Approach: HRs for associations of Copeptin, MR-pro-ANP, and NT-pro-BNP with outcomes were estimated using Cox regression analyses adjusted for established risk factors. Results: During a maximum follow-up of 6.5 years, 413 non-CV deaths, 179 CV deaths, 519 MACE, and 388 hospitalizations for HF were observed. In Cox regression analyses adjusted for established risk factors, each one of the 3 markers were associated with all the 4 outcomes, albeit the highest HRs were found for NT-pro-BNP. When models were extended to include all the 3 markers, NT-pro-BNP remained associated with all 4 outcomes. Conversely, from the 2 novel markers, associations remained only for Copeptin with non-CV death (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.04-2.54 for highest vs lowest quintile) and with hospitalizations for HF (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.08-2.75). Limitations: Single-point measurements of Copeptin, MR-pro-ANP, and NT-pro-BNP. Conclusions: In patients with moderately severe CKD, we confirm NT-pro-BNP to be strongly associated with all outcomes examined. As the main finding, the novel marker Copeptin demonstrated independent associations with non-CV death and hospitalizations for HF, and should therefore be evaluated further for risk assessment in CKD. Plain-Language Summary: A blood sample-based biomarker that indicates high cardiovascular risk in a patient with kidney disease would help to guide interventions and has the potential to improve outcomes. In 4,417 patients of the German Chronic Kidney Disease study, we assessed the relationship of Copeptin, pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) with important outcomes over a follow-up period of 6.5 years. NT-pro-BNP was strongly associated with all of the 4 outcomes, including death unrelated to cardiovascular disease, death because of cardiovascular disease, a major cardiovascular event, and hospitalization for heart failure. Copeptin was associated with death unrelated to cardiovascular disease and hospitalization for heart failure. NT-pro-BNP and Copeptin are, therefore, promising candidates for a blood sample-based strategy to identify patients with kidney disease at high cardiovascular risk.

Association of mineral and bone biomarkers with adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) cohort.

Mineral and bone disorder (MBD) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is tightly linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this study, we aimed to compare the prognostic value of nine MBD biomarkers to determine those associated best with adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes and mortality. In 5 217 participants of the German CKD (GCKD) study enrolled with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 30-60 mL·min-1 per 1.73 m2 or overt proteinuria, serum osteoprotegerin (OPG), C-terminal fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH), bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), cross-linked C-telopeptide of type 1 collagen (CTX1), procollagen 1 intact N-terminal propeptide (P1NP), phosphate, calcium, and 25-OH vitamin D were measured at baseline. Participants with missing values among these parameters (n = 971) were excluded, leaving a total of 4 246 participants for analysis. During a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 387 non-CV deaths, 173 CV deaths, 645 nonfatal major adverse CV events (MACEs) and 368 hospitalizations for congestive heart failure (CHF) were observed. OPG and FGF23 were associated with all outcomes, with the highest hazard ratios (HRs) for OPG. In the final Cox regression model, adjusted for CV risk factors, including kidney function and all other investigated biomarkers, each standard deviation increase in OPG was associated with non-CV death (HR 1.76, 95% CI: 1.35-2.30), CV death (HR 2.18, 95% CI: 1.50-3.16), MACE (HR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.71) and hospitalization for CHF (HR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.56-2.69). Out of the nine biomarkers examined, stratification based on serum OPG best identified the CKD patients who were at the highest risk for any adverse CV outcome and mortality.

Prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease in France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA: results from the multinational observational REVEAL-CKD study.

OBJECTIVES: REVEAL-CKD aims to estimate the prevalence of, and factors associated with, undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Multinational, observational study. SETTING: Data from six country-specific electronic medical records and/or insurance claims databases from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA [two databases]). PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants (≥18 years old) had ≥2 consecutive estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements (calculated from serum creatinine values, sex and age) taken from 2015 onwards that were indicative of stage 3 CKD (≥30 and <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Undiagnosed cases lacked an International Classification of Diseases 9/10 diagnosis code for CKD (any stage) any time before, and up to 6 months after, the second qualifying eGFR measurement (study index). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was point prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD. Time to diagnosis was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Factors associated with lacking a CKD diagnosis and risk of diagnostic delay were assessed using logistic regression adjusted for baseline covariates. RESULTS: The prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD was 95.5% (19 120/20 012 patients) in France, 84.3% (22 557/26 767) in Germany, 77.0% (50 547/65 676) in Italy, 92.1% (83 693/90 902) in Japan, 61.6% (13 845/22 470) in the US Explorys Linked Claims and Electronic Medical Records Data database and 64.3% (161 254/250 879) in the US TriNetX database. The prevalence of undiagnosed CKD increased with age. Factors associated with undiagnosed CKD were female sex (vs male, range of odds ratios across countries: 1.29-1.77), stage 3a CKD (vs 3b, 1.81-3.66), no medical history (vs a history) of diabetes (1.26-2.77) or hypertension (1.35-1.78). CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial opportunities to improve stage 3 CKD diagnosis, particularly in female patients and older patients. The low diagnosis rates in patients with comorbidities that put them at risk of disease progression and complications require attention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04847531.

Differential Prognostic Utility of Adiposity Measures in Chronic Kidney Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Adipose tissue contributes to adverse outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there is uncertainty regarding the prognostic relevance of different adiposity measures. We analyzed the associations of neck circumference (NC), waist circumference (WC), and body mass index (BMI) with clinical outcomes in patients with mild to severe CKD. METHODS: The German Chronic Kidney Disease study is a prospective cohort study, which enrolled Caucasian adults with mild to severe CKD, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate : 30-60 mL/min/1.73 m2, or >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the presence of overt proteinuria. Associations of NC, WC, and BMI with all-cause death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease intervention, and cardiovascular death), and kidney failure (a composite of dialysis or transplantation) were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for confounders and the Akaike information criteria were calculated. Models included sex interactions with adiposity measures. RESULTS: A total of 4537 participants (59% male) were included in the analysis. During a 6.5-year follow-up, 339 participants died, 510 experienced MACE, and 341 developed kidney failure. In fully adjusted models, NC was associated with all-cause death in women (hazard ratio 1.080 per cm; 95% CI 1.009-1.155) but not in men. Irrespective of sex, WC was associated with all-cause death (hazard ratio 1.014 per cm; 95% CI 1.005-1.038). NC and WC showed no association with MACE or kidney failure. BMI was not associated with any of the analyzed outcomes. Models of all-cause death, including WC offered the best (lowest) Akaike information criteria. CONCLUSION: In Caucasian patients with mild to severe CKD, higher NC (in women) and WC were significantly associated with increased risk of death from any cause but BMI was not.

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Prevalence, phenotypic characteristics and prognostic role of apparent treatment resistant hypertension in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study.

Treatment resistant hypertension (TRH) appears of particular relevance in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, causes and consequences of TRH in CKD patients remain incompletely understood. Therefore, we analyzed the prevalence of apparent TRH (aTRH), and phenotypic characteristics and prognosis associated with aTRH among participants of the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study. As insufficient medication adherence has been shown to be a frequent cause of pseudoresistance, we also assessed treatment adherence. Study participants were classified as having aTRH, controlled hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension based on study visit blood pressure and self-reported medication intake. Drug adherence was assessed by comparing self-reported antihypertensive medication with detectable urinary drug metabolites measured by mass spectroscopy. Out of 4901 individuals included in this study, 38% were classified as having aTRH. Male sex, older age, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), higher body mass index (BMI), higher urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and presence of diabetes mellitus were independently associated with higher prevalence of aTRH in a multivariable adjusted regression model. Patients classified as aTRH had higher risk for major adverse cardiovascular events and worsening of kidney disease compared to patients with no aTRH after multivariate adjustment for potential confounders. There was a high agreement between self-reported medication and detectable urinary drug metabolites. In conclusion, in a cohort of Caucasian patients with moderately severe CKD, aTRH was highly prevalent and, in most cases, likely not caused by low medication adherence. Furthermore, aTRH was linked to cardio-renal endpoints, emphasizing the need for improved management.

Association of osteopontin with kidney function and kidney failure in chronic kidney disease patients: the GCKD study.

BACKGROUND: Osteopontin (OPN), synthesized in the thick ascending limb of Henle's loop and in the distal tubule, is involved in the pathogenesis of kidney fibrosis, a hallmark of kidney failure (KF). In a cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, we evaluated OPN's association with kidney markers and KF. METHODS: OPN was measured from baseline serum samples of German Chronic Kidney Disease study participants. Cross-sectional regression models for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) as well as Cox regression models for all-cause mortality and KF were evaluated to estimate the OPN effect. Additionally, the predictive ability of OPN and time-dependent population-attributable fraction were evaluated. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 471 KF events and 629 deaths occurred among 4950 CKD patients. One-unit higher log(OPN) was associated with 5.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -6.4 to -4.6] and 1% change in OPN with 0.7% higher UACR (estimated effect 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.8). Moreover, higher OPN levels were associated with a higher risk of KF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7] and all-cause mortality (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.8). After 6 years, 31% of the KF events could be attributed to higher OPN levels (95% CI 3%-56%). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, higher OPN levels were associated with kidney function markers worsening and a higher risk for adverse outcomes. A larger proportion of KF could be attributed to higher OPN levels, warranting further research on OPN with regards to its role in CKD progression and possible treatment options.

Including measures of chronic kidney disease to improve cardiovascular risk prediction by SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP.

AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline on cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention categorizes moderate and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) as high and very-high CVD risk status regardless of other factors like age and does not include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria in its algorithms, systemic coronary risk estimation 2 (SCORE2) and systemic coronary risk estimation 2 in older persons (SCORE2-OP), to predict CVD risk. We developed and validated an 'Add-on' to incorporate CKD measures into these algorithms, using a validated approach. METHODS: In 3,054 840 participants from 34 datasets, we developed three Add-ons [eGFR only, eGFR + urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (the primary Add-on), and eGFR + dipstick proteinuria] for SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. We validated C-statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI), accounting for competing risk of non-CVD death, in 5,997 719 participants from 34 different datasets. RESULTS: In the target population of SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP without diabetes, the CKD Add-on (eGFR only) and CKD Add-on (eGFR + ACR) improved C-statistic by 0.006 (95%CI 0.004-0.008) and 0.016 (0.010-0.023), respectively, for SCORE2 and 0.012 (0.009-0.015) and 0.024 (0.014-0.035), respectively, for SCORE2-OP. Similar results were seen when we included individuals with diabetes and tested the CKD Add-on (eGFR + dipstick). In 57 485 European participants with CKD, SCORE2 or SCORE2-OP with a CKD Add-on showed a significant NRI [e.g. 0.100 (0.062-0.138) for SCORE2] compared to the qualitative approach in the ESC guideline. CONCLUSION: Our Add-ons with CKD measures improved CVD risk prediction beyond SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. This approach will help clinicians and patients with CKD refine risk prediction and further personalize preventive therapies for CVD.

Educational Attainment Is Associated With Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the German CKD (GCKD) Cohort.

Introduction: Prospective data on impact of educational attainment on prognosis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are scarce. We investigated the association between educational attainment and all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACEs), kidney failure requiring dialysis, and CKD etiology. Methods: Participants (N = 5095, aged 18-74 years) of the ongoing multicenter German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) cohort, enrolled on the basis of an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30 to 60 ml/min (stages G3, A1-A3) or overt proteinuria (stages G1-G2, A3), were divided into 3 categories according to their educational attainment and were followed for 6.5 years. Results: Participants with low educational attainment (vs. high) had a higher risk for mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.48, 95% CI: 1.16-1.90), MACE (HR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.02-1.83), and kidney failure (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.15-2.05). Mediators between low educational attainment and mortality were smoking, CV disease (CVD) at baseline, low income, higher body mass index, and higher serum levels of CRP, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, uric acid, NGAL, BAP, NT-proBNP, OPN, H-FABP, and urea. Low educational attainment was positively associated with diabetic nephropathy (odds ratio [OR] 1.65, 95% CI: 1.36-2.0) and CKD subsequent to acute kidney injury (OR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.03-2.35), but negatively associated with IgA nephropathy (OR 0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.90). Conclusion: Low educational attainment is associated with adverse outcomes and CKD etiology. Lifestyle habits and biomarkers mediate associations between low educational attainment and mortality. Recognition of the role of educational attainment and the associated health-relevant risk factors is important to optimize the care of patients with CKD and improve prognosis.

Heart-Type Fatty Acid Binding Protein, Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Death: Findings From the German CKD Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Heart-type fatty acid binding protein (H-FABP) is a biomarker that has been shown to provide long-term prognostic information in patients with coronary artery disease independently of high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TNT). We examined the independent associations of H-FABP with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 4,951 patients enrolled in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 30-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or overt proteinuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 mg/g or equivalent). EXPOSURE: Serum levels of H-FABP and hs-TNT were measured at study entry. OUTCOME: Noncardiovascular (non-CV) death, CV death, combined major adverse CV events (MACE), and hospitalization for congestive heart failure (CHF). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Hazard ratios (HRs) for associations of H-FABP and hs-TNT with outcomes were estimated using Cox regression analyses adjusted for established risk factors. RESULTS: During a maximum follow-up of 6.5 years, 579 non-CV deaths, 190 CV deaths, 522 MACE, and 381 CHF hospitalizations were observed. In Cox regression analyses adjusted for established risk factors, H-FABP was associated with all 4 outcomes, albeit with lower HRs than those found for hs-TNT. After further adjustment for hs-TNT levels, H-FABP was found to be associated with non-CV death (HR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.14-2.18]) and MACE (HR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.02-1.92]) but with neither CV death (HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 0.90-2.99]) nor CHF hospitalizations (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.70-1.49]). LIMITATIONS: Single-point measurements of H-FABP and hs-TNT. Uncertain generalizability to non-European populations. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with CKD, H-FABP was associated with non-CV death and MACE, even after adjustment for hs-TNT. Whether measurement of H-FABP improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction in these patients warrants further studies.

The Cardiovascular Literature-Based Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA): Predicting Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Non-Dialysis Dependent Chronic Kidney Disease.

Background and Objectives: Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although it is widely recognized that CV risk assessment represents an essential prerequisite for clinical management, existing prognostic models appear not to be entirely adequate for CKD patients. We derived a literature-based, naïve-bayes model predicting the yearly risk of CV hospitalizations among patients suffering from CKD, referred as the CArdiovascular, LIterature-Based, Risk Algorithm (CALIBRA). Methods: CALIBRA incorporates 31 variables including traditional and CKD-specific risk factors. It was validated in two independent CKD populations: the FMC NephroCare cohort (European Clinical Database, EuCliD®) and the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study prospective cohort. CALIBRA performance was evaluated by c-statistics and calibration charts. In addition, CALIBRA discrimination was compared with that of three validated tools currently used for CV prediction in CKD, namely the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) risk score, the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), and the Individual Data Analysis of Antihypertensive Intervention Trials (INDANA) calculator. Superiority was defined as a ΔAUC>0.05. Results: CALIBRA showed good discrimination in both the EuCliD® medical registry (AUC 0.79, 95%CI 0.76-0.81) and the GCKD cohort (AUC 0.73, 95%CI 0.70-0.76). CALIBRA demonstrated improved accuracy compared to the benchmark models in EuCliD® (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.22, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.17, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.14, p<0.001) and GCKD (FHS: ΔAUC=-0.16, p<0.001; ASCVD: ΔAUC=-0.12, p<0.001; INDANA: ΔAUC=-0.04, p<0.001) populations. Accuracy of the CALIBRA score was stable also for patients showing missing variables. Conclusion: CALIBRA provides accurate and robust stratification of CKD patients according to CV risk and allows score calculations with improved accuracy compared to established CV risk scores also in real-world clinical cohorts with considerable missingness rates. Our results support the generalizability of CALIBRA across different CKD populations and clinical settings.

Apolipoprotein A-IV concentrations and clinical outcomes in a large chronic kidney disease cohort: Results from the GCKD study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a chronic proinflammatory state and is associated with very high cardiovascular risk. Apolipoprotein A-IV (apoA-IV) has antiatherogenic, antioxidative, anti-inflammatory and antithrombotic properties and levels increase significantly during the course of CKD. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the association between apoA-IV and all-cause mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in the German Chronic Kidney Disease study. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study including 5141 Caucasian patients with available apoA-IV measurements and CKD. The majority of the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-60 ml/min/1.73m2 or an eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73m2 in the presence of overt proteinuria. Median follow-up was 6.5 years. The association of apoA-IV with comorbidities at baseline and endpoints during follow-up was modelled adjusting for major confounders. RESULTS: Mean apoA-IV concentrations of the entire cohort were 28.9 ± 9.8 mg/dl. Patients in the highest apoA-IV quartile had the lowest high-sensitivity C-reactive protein values despite the highest prevalence of diabetes, albuminuria and the lowest eGFR. Each 10 mg/dl higher apoA-IV translated into lower odds of prevalent cardiovascular disease (1289 cases, odds ratio = 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.86, p = 0.0000003). During follow-up, each 10 mg/dl higher apoA-IV was significantly associated with a lower risk for all-cause mortality (600 cases, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81, 95% CI 0.73-0.89, p = 0.00004), incident major adverse cardiovascular events (506 cases, HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.79-0.99, p = 0.03) and death or hospitalizations due to heart failure (346 cases, HR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.96, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These data support a link between elevated apoA-IV concentrations and reduced inflammation in moderate CKD. ApoA-IV appears to be an independent risk marker for reduced all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events and heart failure in a large cohort of patients with CKD.

Thyroid function, renal events and mortality in chronic kidney disease patients: the German Chronic Kidney Disease study.

BACKGROUND: Hypothyroidism and low free triiodothyronine (FT3) syndrome [low FT3 levels with normal thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH)] have been associated with reduced kidney function cross-sectionally in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients with severely reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Results on the prospective effects of impaired thyroid function on renal events and mortality for patients with severely reduced eGFR or from population-based cohorts are conflicting. Here we evaluated the association between thyroid and kidney function with eGFR (cross-sectionally) as well as renal events and mortality (prospectively) in a large, prospective cohort of CKD patients with mild to moderately reduced kidney function. METHODS: Thyroid markers were measured among CKD patients from the German Chronic Kidney Disease study. Incident renal endpoints (combined ESKD, acute kidney injury and renal death) and all-cause mortality were abstracted from hospital records and death certificates. Time to first event analysis of complete data from baseline to the 4-year follow-up (median follow-up time 4.04 years) of 4600 patients was conducted. Multivariable linear regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted for single and combined continuous thyroid markers [TSH, free thyroxine (FT4), FT3] and thyroid status. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, the presence of low-FT3 syndrome showed a significant inverse association with eGFR and continuous FT3 levels alone showed a significant positive association with eGFR; in combination with FT4 and TSH, FT3 levels also showed a positive association and FT4 levels showed a negative association with eGFR. Prospectively, higher FT4 and lower FT3 levels were significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (N events = 297). Per picomole per litre higher FT3 levels the risk of reaching the composite renal endpoint was 0.73-fold lower (95% confidence interval 0.65-0.82; N events = 615). Compared with euthyroid patients, patients with low-FT3 syndrome had a 2.2-fold higher risk and patients with hypothyroidism had a 1.6-fold higher risk of experiencing the composite renal endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with mild to moderate CKD suffering from thyroid function abnormalities are at an increased risk of adverse renal events and all-cause mortality over time.

Low adherence to CKD-specific dietary recommendations associates with impaired kidney function, dyslipidemia, and inflammation.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: A diet following chronic kidney disease (CKD)-specific recommendations is considered essential for optimal management of patients with CKD. However, data on the adherence to these recommendations and its implications for health-relevant biomarkers are lacking. The objectives were to estimate adherence to CKD-specific dietary recommendations, to identify characteristics and lifestyle variables associated with poor adherence, and to investigate the relationship of adherence with biomarkers. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis, average dietary intake was estimated in 3193 participants with moderately severe CKD enrolled into the observational multicenter German CKD study using a food frequency questionnaire. A CKD diet score was developed to assess adherence to CKD-specific dietary recommendations based on intake of sodium, potassium, fiber, protein, sugar, and cholesterol. The associations of dietary adherence with characteristics, lifestyle variables, and biomarker levels were determined. RESULTS: Logistic regression analysis revealed younger age, higher body mass index, male gender, lower educational attainment, various lifestyle variables (cigarette smoking, infrequent alcohol consumption, low physical activity), and lower estimated glomerular filtrate rate associated with lower adherence to dietary recommendations. Low adherence to dietary recommendations was further associated with dyslipidemia, higher uric acid, and C-reactive protein levels. Associations between low dietary adherence and biomarkers were mostly driven by low intake of fiber and potassium, and high intake of sugar and cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed differential characteristics and biomarkers associated with lower adherence to CKD-specific dietary recommendations. Promotion of CKD-specific dietary recommendations may help to mitigate the adverse prognosis in CKD patients.

Circulating uromodulin inhibits vascular calcification by interfering with pro-inflammatory cytokine signalling.

AIMS: Uromodulin is produced exclusively in the kidney and secreted into both urine and blood. Serum levels of uromodulin are correlated with kidney function and reduced in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, but physiological functions of serum uromodulin are still elusive. This study investigated the role of uromodulin in medial vascular calcification, a key factor associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in CKD patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Experiments were performed in primary human (HAoSMCs) and mouse (MOVAS) aortic smooth muscle cells, cholecalciferol overload and subtotal nephrectomy mouse models and serum from CKD patients. In three independent cohorts of CKD patients, serum uromodulin concentrations were inversely correlated with serum calcification propensity. Uromodulin supplementation reduced phosphate-induced osteo-/chondrogenic transdifferentiation and calcification of HAoSMCs. In human serum, pro-inflammatory cytokines tumour necrosis factor α (TNFα) and interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß) co-immunoprecipitated with uromodulin. Uromodulin inhibited TNFα and IL-1ß-induced osteo-/chondrogenic signalling and activation of the transcription factor nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated ß cells (NF-kB) as well as phosphate-induced NF-kB-dependent transcriptional activity in HAoSMCs. In vivo, adeno-associated virus (AAV)-mediated overexpression of uromodulin ameliorated vascular calcification in mice with cholecalciferol overload. Conversely, cholecalciferol overload-induced vascular calcification was aggravated in uromodulin-deficient mice. In contrast, uromodulin overexpression failed to reduce vascular calcification during renal failure in mice. Carbamylated uromodulin was detected in serum of CKD patients and uromodulin carbamylation inhibited its anti-calcific properties in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: Uromodulin counteracts vascular osteo-/chondrogenic transdifferentiation and calcification, at least in part, through interference with cytokine-dependent pro-calcific signalling. In CKD, reduction and carbamylation of uromodulin may contribute to vascular pathology.

Incorporating kidney disease measures into cardiovascular risk prediction: Development and validation in 9 million adults from 72 datasets.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) measures (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria) are frequently assessed in clinical practice and improve the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet most major clinical guidelines do not have a standardized approach for incorporating these measures into CVD risk prediction. "CKD Patch" is a validated method to calibrate and improve the predicted risk from established equations according to CKD measures. METHODS: Utilizing data from 4,143,535 adults from 35 datasets, we developed several "CKD Patches" incorporating eGFR and albuminuria, to enhance prediction of risk of atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) and CVD mortality by Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The risk enhancement by CKD Patch was determined by the deviation between individual CKD measures and the values expected from their traditional CVD risk factors and the hazard ratios for eGFR and albuminuria. We then validated this approach among 4,932,824 adults from 37 independent datasets, comparing the original PCE and SCORE equations (recalibrated in each dataset) to those with addition of CKD Patch. FINDINGS: We confirmed the prediction improvement with the CKD Patch for CVD mortality beyond SCORE and ASCVD beyond PCE in validation datasets (Δc-statistic 0.027 [95% CI 0.018-0.036] and 0.010 [0.007-0.013] and categorical net reclassification improvement 0.080 [0.032-0.127] and 0.056 [0.044-0.067], respectively). The median (IQI) of the ratio of predicted risk for CVD mortality with CKD Patch vs. the original prediction with SCORE was 2.64 (1.89-3.40) in very high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 30-44 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria ≥30 mg/g), 1.86 (1.48-2.44) in high-risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 45-59 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), and 1.37 (1.14-1.69) in moderate risk CKD (e.g., eGFR 60-89 ml/min/1.73m2 with albuminuria 30-299 mg/g), indicating considerable risk underestimation in CKD with SCORE. The corresponding estimates for ASCVD with PCE were 1.55 (1.37-1.81), 1.24 (1.10-1.54), and 1.21 (0.98-1.46). INTERPRETATION: The "CKD Patch" can be used to quantitatively enhance ASCVD and CVD mortality risk prediction equations recommended in major US and European guidelines according to CKD measures, when available. FUNDING: US National Kidney Foundation and the NIDDK.

Association of Serum Uromodulin with Death, Cardiovascular Events, and Kidney Failure in CKD.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Uromodulin is exclusively produced by tubular epithelial cells and released into urine and serum. Higher serum uromodulin has been associated with lower risk for kidney failure in Chinese patients with CKD and with lower risk for mortality in the elderly and in patients undergoing coronary angiography. We hypothesized that lower serum uromodulin is associated with mortality, cardiovascular events, and kidney failure in white patients with CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We measured serum uromodulin in 5143 participants enrolled in the German CKD (GCKD) study. The associations of baseline serum uromodulin with all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, or incident peripheral vascular disease), and kidney failure (dialysis or transplantation) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses in a cohort study design, adjusting for demographics, eGFR, albuminuria, cardiovascular risk factors, and medication. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 60±12 years, 60% were male. Mean serum uromodulin concentration was 98±60 ng/ml, eGFR was 49±18 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and 78% had eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Participants in lower serum uromodulin quartiles had lower eGFR and higher albuminuria, prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and more frequent history of stroke at baseline. During a follow-up of 4 years, 335 participants died, 417 developed MACE, and 229 developed kidney failure. In multivariable analysis, the highest serum uromodulin quartile was associated with lower hazard for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.87), MACE (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.90), and kidney failure (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.55) compared with the lowest quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Higher serum uromodulin is independently associated with lower risk for mortality, cardiovascular events, and kidney failure in white patients with CKD. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Deutsches Register für Klinische Studien (DRKS; German national database of clinical studies), DRKS00003971.

Novel Biomarkers in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: An Analysis of Patients Enrolled in the GCKD-Study.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) often occur concomitantly, and CKD is a major risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Since some of the most commonly used biomarkers in CVD are permanently elevated in patients with CKD, novel biomarkers are warranted for clinical practice. Methods: Plasma concentrations of five cardiovascular biomarkers (soluble suppression of tumorigenicity (sST2), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2 (IGF-BP2), and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) were analyzed by means of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 219 patients with CKD enrolled in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study. Results: Except for sST2, all of the investigated biomarkers were significantly elevated in patients with CKD (2.0- to 4.4-fold increase in advanced CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² body surface area (BSA)) and showed a significant inverse correlation with eGFR. Moreover, all but H-FABP and sST2 were additionally elevated in patients with micro- and macro-albuminuria. Conclusions: Based on our findings, sST2 appears to be the biomarker whose diagnostic performance is least affected by decreased renal function, thus suggesting potential viability in the management of patients with CVD and concomitant CKD. The predictive potential of sST2 remains to be proven in endpoint studies.